AION — Monte Carlo

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK EXPERIMENTAL · READ METHODOLOGY BELOW

3D PROB

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10D PROB

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20D PROB

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CRASH

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STAT REGIME

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STRESS

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AION INDEX

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PROB INDEX

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LIQUIDITY

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Select a ticker to generate the probabilistic outlook.

Signal-biased GBM. Same engine as the dashboard Predictive Outlook, applied per ticker.

Historical Expected 68% 95%

Cone inputs: 35% Parent-profile AI forecast · 40% 5 statistical models · 25% Regime + crash · Adjusted by AION INDEX tilt and volatility regime

METHODOLOGY & RISKS: Projections are generated by signal-biased Geometric Brownian Motion. Historical drift (μ) and volatility (σ) are tilted by a 35/40/25 blend of parent-profile AI forecast probabilities, five per-ticker statistical models (Price Trend, Trend+Momentum, Breadth, Volatility Envelope, Momentum Strength), regime classification, crash detection, current volatility regime, and AION INDEX relative strength score.

Important limitations: (1) All bias inputs are backward-looking and can flip wrong at regime turning points. (2) Tickers not in any sector profile receive a stats-only outlook with no AI forecast bias, and these cones will be less directionally informative. (3) The AION INDEX tilt reinforces momentum and magnifies drawdowns when trends break. (4) Probabilities reflect directional lean under modeling assumptions, not true certainties; a 90% bullish reading does NOT mean 90% likelihood of gains. These probabilities are derived from a deterministic signal blend and are not calibrated against realized forward returns. (5) Prediction bands represent distributions from a biased stochastic process, not guarantees of future price levels.

Past model accuracy and backtested performance do not guarantee future results. Markets involve substantial risk of loss. This visualization is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

DATA & TIMING NOTICE: This page has two modes. Raw Monte Carlo uses unbiased Geometric Brownian Motion calibrated from 10 years of historical data, with parameters refreshed 3x on market days (9:30 AM, 1:00 PM, 8:05 PM ET). Probabilistic Outlook applies a signal-bias layer (AI forecast, statistical models, regime, RS) to the same GBM engine, refreshed hourly from live pipeline signals. 1,000 paths rendered client-side. Both modes produce probabilistic projections, not predictions. Outputs have not been independently verified or audited and can materially revise as market conditions evolve. This tool is provided strictly for educational and entertainment purposes and should not be interpreted as financial information, analysis, or advice of any kind. Past model performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

IMPORTANT LEGAL DISCLAIMER

This dashboard and all content provided herein is for informational and educational purposes only and is provided on an "as-is" basis without warranties of any kind, either express or implied. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment advice, a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This product is not affiliated with, operated by, or associated with Aeternitas Capital LP or any registered investment fund, broker-dealer, or investment adviser. Access to this dashboard does not constitute an advisory relationship of any kind. All model outputs, forecasts, signals, probabilities, and scores displayed are the product of experimental machine learning research and should not be relied upon as the sole or primary basis for any investment decision. No output has been validated, audited, or verified by any third party. This product is provided strictly for educational and entertainment purposes only. Past model performance, backtested or otherwise, is not indicative of future results. Markets involve substantial risk of loss. You should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. No guarantee is made regarding the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or reliability of any information presented. Aion Analytics LLC and its affiliates, officers, and agents shall not be held liable for any losses, damages, or claims arising from the use of or reliance on this information. All content, algorithms, models, methodologies, source code, and visual designs are the exclusive intellectual property of Aion Analytics LLC and are protected by applicable copyright, trade secret, and intellectual property laws. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, reverse engineering, or commercial use is strictly prohibited and will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. For inquiries contact: info@aionanalytics.com